Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.289327 0.327388 0.368678 0.416814 0.471418 0.531467 0.602555
2025-10-19 0.231182 0.281087 0.339289 0.412254 0.501400 0.606932 0.741588
2025-10-26 0.192861 0.250105 0.321350 0.416711 0.541314 0.699023 0.914485
2025-11-02 0.154743 0.212838 0.289567 0.398633 0.550231 0.754327 1.051394
2025-11-09 0.123978 0.180014 0.258194 0.375674 0.548606 0.795182 1.175936
2025-11-16 0.103701 0.158366 0.238628 0.365681 0.563037 0.860049 1.345000
2025-11-23 0.087393 0.139867 0.220664 0.354926 0.574238 0.921430 1.518855
2025-11-30 0.077949 0.130412 0.214910 0.361948 0.613914 1.032538 1.789980
2025-12-07 0.066323 0.115588 0.198299 0.348497 0.617554 1.085072 1.971486
2025-12-14 0.057899 0.104882 0.186919 0.342043 0.631893 1.157517 2.199620
2025-12-21 0.050863 0.095553 0.176532 0.335628 0.645019 1.229293 2.437984
2025-12-28 0.046797 0.091054 0.174168 0.343614 0.686140 1.358948 2.809578
2026-01-04 0.041887 0.084410 0.167174 0.342283 0.710288 1.462324 3.152851
2026-01-11 0.038082 0.079400 0.162660 0.345297 0.743952 1.590745 3.573665
2026-01-18 0.035284 0.076040 0.160995 0.354028 0.791279 1.755878 4.107060
2026-01-25 0.031038 0.068981 0.150599 0.342242 0.791626 1.818723 4.418143
2026-02-01 0.026948 0.061665 0.138609 0.325018 0.776783 1.844826 4.646879
2026-02-08 0.024148 0.056867 0.131543 0.318111 0.785210 1.926988 5.031043
2026-02-15 0.021618 0.052330 0.124433 0.309992 0.789359 1.999515 5.404763
2026-02-22 0.020301 0.050518 0.123499 0.316995 0.832905 2.178345 6.098371
2026-03-01 0.018108 0.046223 0.115922 0.305875 0.827345 2.228848 6.446272
2026-03-08 0.016476 0.043120 0.110892 0.300671 0.836884 2.321501 6.934135
2026-03-15 0.015017 0.040264 0.106100 0.295365 0.845287 2.412512 7.435764